Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Can the Nation Afford It?

An enormous amount of discussion about health care, additional troop deployments, extension of unemployment benefits, etc., begins with opponents saying, "We can't afford it."  Let's take a look at our debt, how it compares with other countries, and weigh the pros and cons of policy decisions based on an educated look at our financial circumstances.
Where would you rank the US among all debtor nations in the world?
1.  Ireland's debt is 1267% of its GDP, or $2.386 trillion as of the second quarter, 2009.  It produces the 35th largest GDP @ $267.579 billion.
2.  Switzerland's debt is 422.7% of its GDP, or $1.338 trillion as of the second quarter, 2009.  It produces the 21st largest GDP @ $500.260 billion.
3.  The UK's debt is  408.3% of its GDP, or $9.087 trillion as of the second quarter, 2009.  It produces the 6th largest GDP @ $2.680 trillion.
4.  The Netherlands' debt is 365% of its GDP, or $2.452 trillion as of the second quarter, 2009. It produces the 16th largest GDP @ $876.970 billion.
5.  Belgium's debt is 320.2% of its GDP, or $1.246 trillion as of the first quarter, 2009.  It produces the 20th largest GDP @ $506.183 billion.
6.  Denmark's debt is 298.3% of GDP, or $607.38 billion as of the second quarter, 2009.  It produces the 28th largest GDP @ $340.029 billion.
7.  Austria's debt is 252.6% of its GDP, or $832.42 billion as of the second quarter, 2009. It produces the 14th largest GDP @ $1.013 billion.
8.  France's debt is 236% of its GDP, or $5.021 trillion as of the second quarter, 2009.  It produces the 5th largest GDP @ $2.867 trillion.
9.  Portugal's debt is 214.4% of its GDP, or $507 billion as of the second quarter, 2009.  It produces the 37th largest GDP @ $244.640 billion.
10. Hong Kong's debt is 205.8% of its GDP, or $631.13 billion as of the second quarter, 2009. While not an independent nation, it produces the 41st largest GDP @ $215.354 billion.
11. Norway's debt is 199% of its GDP, or $548.1 billion as of the second quarter, 2009. It produces the 24th largest GDP @ $451.830 billion.
12. Sweden's debt is 194.3% of its GDP, or $669.1 billion as of the second quarter, 2009. It produces the 22nd largest GDP @ $478.961 billion.
13. Finland's debt is 188.5% of its GDP, or $364.85 billion as of the second quarter, 2009.  It produces the 34th largest GDP, @ $271.867 billion.
14. Germany's debt is 178.5% of its GDP, or $5.208 trillion as of the second quarter, 2009. It produces the
4th largest GDP @ $3.673 trillion.
15. Spain's debt is 171.5% of its GDP, or $2.409 trillion as of the second quarter, 2009. It produces the 9th largest GDP @ $1.602 trillion.
16. Greece's debt is 161.1% of its GDP, or $552.8 billion as of the second quarter, 2009. It produces the 27th largest GDP @ $357.548 billion.
17. Italy's debt is 126.7% of its GDP, or $2.310 trillion as of the first quarter, 2009.  It produces the 7th largest GDP @ $2.314 billion.
18. Australia's debt is 111.3% of its GDP, or $891.26 billion as of the second quarter, 2009.  It produces the 14th largest GDP, @ $1.013 trillion.
19. Hungary's debt is 105.7% of its GDP, or $207.92 billion as of the first quarter, 2009.  It produces the 52nd largest GDP @ $156 billion.
20. USA's debt is 94.3% of GDP, or $13.454 trillion billion as of the first quarter, 2009. It produces the largest GDP @ $14.441 trillion.  The next highest is Japan, at $9.5 trillion less, followed by China, at more than $10 trillion less.  A discussion of the level of US national debt in historic context can be found here.
(GDP ranking source: IMF, Annual GDP  source: CNBC)
Surprised?
Let's put this into context.  Let's move a couple of zeroes and turn the US into a person.  This person earns $134,540 per year.  She owes $125 thousand on a mortgage and $1871 on her car.  Would you consider this person in an unreasonably high debt level?
Next year, she will take out an equity loan on her home for $14,573.  This will increase her level of debt to $141,444 (assuming she pays only the interest on this debt during the prior year).  Now she owes 105% of what she makes.  Do you consider this person in an unreasonably high debt level?
At this point, compared with other nations we are 20th as a debtor.  Historically, in 1944, our debt to GDP was 91.45%, in 1945, 115.95% in 1946, 121.2% in 1946, 105.77% in 1947, 93.72% in 1948, and 94.56% in 1949. 
In 1949, the S&P 500 Index grew 18.79%.  In 1950, it grew 31.71%.  In 1951, it grew 24.02%.  In 1952, it grew 18.37%.  In 1953, it fell by .99%, and rose 52.62% in 1954.  Not only have we been at these debt levels before, but we grew handsomely after that period.
I'm not saying that I think debt is a good thing.  I don't.  But, I do think that the "we can't afford it" manta must be put into perspective.  If the policy issue is critically important, we can afford it.
The question should be whether the policy issue is critically important.

3 comments:

  1. I just love the stats you post. I use them all the time in various situations.

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  2. Kitty, thank you so much for this. Like putting your feet in a cool stream after a long hike. Keep on bring it, please....

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  3. thank you, kitty, for proving we can afford health care and a jobs package (hopefully one that temporarily shores up state and local governments).

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